An
estimated 100 million people will die by 2030, if the world fails to
tackle the climate changes, a study sponsored by 20 countries revealed
today.
As global average temperatures rise due to greenhouse gas emissions,
the effects on the planet, such as melting ice caps, extreme weather,
drought and rising sea levels, will threaten populations and
livelihoods, said the report conducted by humanitarian organization
DARA.
The report said that an estimated five million people die each year
due to air pollution, hunger and diseases following the adverse effects
of climate changes and the death toll would rise to six million by 2030
if the current patterns of fossil fuel use continue. Nearly 90 percent
of death would occur in the developing countries.
“A combined climate-carbon crisis is estimated to claim 100 million
lives between now and the end of the next decade”, the report said.
Full Report published below….
REPORT: CLIMATE CRISIS ALREADY CAUSING UNPRECEDENTED DAMAGE TO WORLD ECONOMY; HUMAN IMPACT ON LARGE-SCALE
• New and comprehensive assessment of the costs of climate change
• Inaction on climate change already causing over one trillion dollars in losses
• Costs to escalate rapidly: global GDP stunted by over 3 percent by
2030 – crisis to increasingly hold back growth if urgent action is not
taken
• Climate change and carbon economy linked to 5 million deaths each year
• High-level political, scientific and economic leaders call for
international action to halt surge in losses to human life and the world
economy hitting all nations
NEW YORK, Wednesday 26 September 2012 – DARA and Climate Vulnerable
Forum report: Most comprehensive ever assessment of the current global
impact of climate change released today.
20 governments commissioned the independent report, the first of its
kind to show that tackling the global climate crisis would already reap
significant economic benefits for world, major economies and poor
nations alike.
“Climate Vulnerability Monitor” study’s findings point to unprecedented
harm to human society and current economic development that will
increasingly hold back growth, on the basis of an important updating and
revision of previous estimates of losses linked to climate change.
KEY FINDINGS INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING ESTIMATES:
• Climate change and a carbon-intensive economy considered a leading
global cause of death today, responsible for 5 million deaths each year –
400,000 due to hunger and communicable diseases aggravated by climate
change and 4.5 million carbon economy deaths due mainly to air pollution
• Failure to act on climate change already costs the world economy 1.6%
of global GDP amounting to 1.2 trillion dollars in forgone prosperity a
year
• Rapidly escalating temperatures and carbon-related pollution will double costs to 3.2% of world GDP by 2030
• Losses for lower-income countries are already extreme: 11% of GDP on average for Least Developed Countries already by 2030
• Major economies are heavily hit: in less than 20 years China will
incur the greatest share of all losses at over 1.2 trillion dollars; the
US economy will be held back by more 2% of GDP; India, over 5% of its
GDP
• Economic losses dwarf the modest costs tackling climate change:
emission reductions at just 0.5% of GDP for the next decade; and support
to the vulnerable: a minimum of 150 billion dollars per year for
developing countries
Climate Vulnerable Forum Chair, Bangladesh – one of the largest
newly-emerging economies in Asia – represented by Prime Minister Sheikh
Hasina officially launched the report at a major diplomatic event to
coincide with the 67th session of United Nations General Assembly.
Commenting on the report she said:
“One degree Celsius rise in temperature is associated with 10%
productivity loss in farming. For us, it means losing about four million
metric tonnes of food grain, amounting to about US$ 2.5 billion. That
is about 2% of our GDP. Adding up the damages to property and other
losses, we are faced with a total loss of about 3-4% of GDP. Without
these losses, we could have easily secured much higher growth.”
“After seventeen years of international negotiations, we are still
without any meaningful agreement or action to reduce global warming. As a
climate vulnerable country, every day we see and feel the ramifications
of that inaction as outlined in the Climate Vulnerable Monitor. But
experts have struggled to tie all the pieces together to design a clear
picture of climate vulnerability. This report examines impacts linked to
climate change in some new ways and attempts to draw new conclusions.
We did not have access to this information until now. Of course, experts
may call into question this or that aspect of the Monitor’s findings,
but we are certain subsequent research will continue to reaffirm the
broad conclusions of the report. Its publication is a milestone for the
climate negotiations. It is our hope it will help redirect efforts to
effectively address the harms being done to today’s economy. We continue
to work with all governments and other stakeholders to bring about a
fair and just outcome to the negotiations.”
The report is the second to be issued by an ongoing international
research program on climate-related vulnerability mandated to the
independent humanitarian and development research organization, DARA.
Its expanded assessment of the costs of inaction on climate change
presents a new and original assimilation of the latest scientific
evidence, research and data in a survey of thirty-four indicators of
climate-related concern. The study estimates human and economic impacts
for 184 countries in 2010 and 2030 across a wide range of separate
effects. Indicators of impact range from issues such as hunger and skin
cancer, to permafrost thawing and sea-level rise, indoor and outdoor air
pollution, and fisheries, biodiversity and forest deterioration.
Constraints on labor productivity, imposed by rising heat, are the
largest single impact due to climate change and a new component of the
analysis.
High-level and technical panels of over 50 leading scientists,
economists, and policy experts, including former heads of government,
reviewed the report
whose development also involved field-based research in Africa and Asia.
Report Panel member, DARA Trustee and Former President of Costa Rica José María Figueres said today:
“1.3 billion people are still fighting their way out of the most extreme
forms of poverty while major economies are today fighting their way out
of crippling financial and economic crises. We simply cannot afford to
part with more growth. The prospect of economic losses that rise with
every decade could destabilize the world economy far before the worst
impacts of climate change set in. Governments and international policy
makers must act decisively to combat the spiraling costs to national and
global GDP resulting from inaction on climate change. The Monitor shows
how failure to do so has already caused unprecedented damage to the
world economy and threatens human life across the globe. With the
investment required to solve climate change already far below the
estimated costs of inaction, no doubt remains as to the path worth
taking.”
The new Monitor report, entitled “A Guide to the Cold Calculus of A Hot
Planet,” juxtaposes on the one hand the large-scale anticipated
increases in fossil fuel consumption over the coming decades with the
enormous human and developmental consequences of this. However, it also
points out that decisions taken on cold monetary terms alone would
actually favour strong action on climate change globally and regionally.
The report outlines how the first edition of the Monitor is already used
as a tool by development, humanitarian and aid agencies concerned with
addressing the growing impact of climate change around the world, as
well as investment and security analysts among others.
Ends
FOR ADDITIONAL COMMENT, INFORMATION OR TO REQUEST AN INTERVIEW WITH A DARA/FORUM SPOKESPERSON, PLEASE CONTACT:
Daniel Rolle, MHP Communications
daniel.rolle@mhpc.com /
+44 (0)203 128 8199 /
+44 (0)7946 656 212
Tom Gillingham, MHP Communications
tom.gillingham@mhpc.com /
+44 (0)20 3128 8151 /
+44 (0) 7585 301 464
About the Monitor
The Climate Vulnerability Monitor measures the global impact of climate
change and the carbon economy at a national level. It calculates and
compares the vulnerability for 184 countries in four areas of impact
(environmental disasters, habitat change, health impact and industry
stress) using 34 climate and carbon related indicators. The monitor uses
five levels of vulnerability, from acute to low, to compare and
contrast nations.
The first Monitor was launched in 2010 to assess the effects of global
climate change on nations up to 2030. It uses current peer-reviewed
scientific research, in-country field research and critical input from
two separate external advisory bodies.
About DARA
Founded in 2003, DARA is an international organization headquartered in
Madrid, Spain, committed to improving the effectiveness of aid for
vulnerable populations suffering from conflict, disasters and climate
change.
It is an impartial, non-partisan, non-profit entity independently
governed by a foundation Board of Trustees and actively engaged in field
research and evaluation work of aid programs and operations in
developing countries across five continents. It also produces and issues
specialized publications and data in particular on aid accountability
and effectiveness issues, as well as emerging strategic concerns for the
development, humanitarian and disaster reduction domains.
DARA’s Climate Vulnerability Initiative is mandated to develop the
Monitor as an independent and politically impartial report and convenes
the external advisory bodies that provide third-party guidance and
review inputs to this process.
www.daraint.org
About the Climate Vulnerable Forum
Founded in 2009, the Climate Vulnerable Forum is a semi-formal
government cooperation group of developing countries facing high degrees
of insecurity due to climate change and active in seeking a resolution
to the climate crisis.
The Forum has called for ambitious outcomes in international climate
change policy, such as setting the temperature increase goal at 1.5°
Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) which was subsequently also adopted by other
groups of countries and played an important boundary definition role in
the UN climate negotiations at Copenhagen in 2009. The Forum has
advocated for and insisted on accountability to decisions taken in
international arena regarding climate change and sustainable development
and its members have committed to pursue domestic low-carbon and even
carbon neutral development pathways.
The Forum currently has 20 members and meets periodically at head of
government, ministerial and delegate levels. The Monitor is an
analytical input and communication tool for Forum members, and the two
country studies included in this report were undertaken in member
countries, Ghana and Vietnam.
